Portugal does not have an investment problem. It has a decision problem.

Portugal does not have an investment problem. It has a decision problem.

Over the last few months I have been writing about seemingly different topics. Data centers in Sines. The new space economy. Artificial intelligence. Nearshoring. Housing. Logistics. Energy. Industry. Defense. At first glance they seem to be different subjects, each with its own challenges and opportunities. But the more I follow these sectors, the more I always come to the same conclusion: Portugal no longer lacks investment. It lacks the ability to decide.
The numbers recently presented by the Portuguese Renewable Energy Association (APREN), in a study developed by Nova SBE and Lobo Carmona, are perhaps the most evident example of this reality. There are about 60 billion euros in investment intentions in renewable energies that remain blocked. Not because there is a lack of funding. Not because the technology does not exist. Not because the market does not want to invest. But because the licensing processes, the capacity of the electricity grid and the absence of decisions prevent these projects from moving forward.
According to the study, each year of delay costs the State around 1.7 billion euros in tax revenues that never reach the public coffers. If the blockades were removed, the sector´s annual tax contribution would more than double, and could exceed 2.8 billion euros. We are not, therefore, facing an environmental discussion. We are facing a question of economic competitiveness and public management.
The most curious thing is that this problem is not exclusive to energy.
When I write about housing, I encounter exactly the same obstacle. The country needs to build more houses, but it is still caught between lengthy licensing, outdated municipal master plans, successive opinions, entities that rarely decide together, and enormous difficulty in transforming available land into effective housing.
When I write about large industrial investments, I find the same scenario again. International companies want to set up in Portugal, but wait years for electricity connections, environmental licenses or administrative decisions. The same happens with logistics projects, data centers, factories or strategic infrastructures.
The problem changes sectors.
The origin remains exactly the same.
For many years we believed that Portugal needed above all to attract investment. Today we realize that this phase has largely passed. The investment exists. There is international interest. There are funds available. There are companies that want to grow here. There are Portuguese entrepreneurs prepared to invest. There are universities that produce knowledge and highly qualified talent.
What is still missing is a State capable of keeping up with this new speed of the economy.
And here it is important to make an important distinction. I am not advocating fewer rules or less environmental requirements. I also do not believe that speeding up processes means approving everything indiscriminately. A modern country needs scrutiny, transparency and sustainability.
The problem is different.
The problem arises when a process takes so long that the opportunity disappears before the decision arrives.
We live in a world where international investment chooses countries that offer predictability. Companies can accept strict rules. What they can hardly accept is permanent uncertainty. Knowing that a project can take two, three or five years just to gather authorizations turns any investment decision into a high-risk exercise.
However, other countries are advancing.
And Portugal asks again why it missed another opportunity.
The most paradoxical thing is that the study itself demonstrates what renewable energies already represent for the national economy. In 2024, the sector contributed more than 5.3 billion euros to GDP, sustained more than 62 thousand jobs, avoided 2.1 billion euros in fossil fuel imports and allowed an average saving of 636 euros per household and more than 63 thousand euros per company, thanks to the impact of renewable production on the price of electricity.
In other words, we already have concrete evidence of the economic benefits.
And yet we continue to block its growth.
Even more impressive is to see that Portugal today occupies a leading European position in the incorporation of renewable energies. About 80% of the electricity produced in the country comes from renewable sources and, during the first half of this year, there was practically an entire month in which this production was enough to ensure all national consumption.
Few countries are able to present these results.
But few countries can also waste so many opportunities to turn them into competitive advantage.
I have often argued that Portugal´s economic future will pass through sectors such as data centres, artificial intelligence, the technological industry, the production of green hydrogen, the space economy or the new industry linked to defence. All of them have a common characteristic: they consume huge amounts of energy and are looking for countries capable of guaranteeing clean, stable and competitive electricity.
Portugal meets these conditions.
But then it fails in what should be simpler: allowing projects to move forward.
And perhaps this is where we should make some self-criticism as a country.
For decades we used to say that Portugal was a country with few natural resources. Today this narrative no longer makes sense. We have sun, wind, technological capacity, privileged Atlantic location, internationally recognized talent, political stability, modern infrastructures and growing scientific capacity.
The problem is no longer what we have.
It is what we do with what we have.
Unfortunately, we are still too stuck in an administrative culture built to avoid decisions, instead of facilitating good decisions. We have multiplied entities, opinions, shared competences and successive procedures. In the end, there is rarely a real person responsible for the result.
When everything depends on everyone, it often ends up depending on no one.
That is precisely why I believe that Portugal needs less to announce new strategies and more to execute those that already exist. The National Energy and Climate Plan is defined. The European goals are known. The investors are identified. The technology exists. So does the financing.
What is missing is to turn intention into reality.
It is not just an economic issue.
It´s a matter of trust.
Each project that is blocked for years sends a message to the international market. Each missed opportunity reduces the country´s credibility. Each postponed decision means jobs that are not created, tax revenue that does not enter, innovation that does not happen, and competitiveness that is lost.
Perhaps the time has come to change the question.
Instead of continuing to ask why Portugal grows less than it could, perhaps we should ask how many opportunities we choose to waste before making a decision.
Because the numbers are clear.
Portugal no longer has an investment problem.
There is a decision problem.
And as long as we don´t solve this problem, we will continue to see the same paradox: a country full of opportunities that takes too long to take advantage of them.