At a time when the world economy is going through one of the most volatile periods in recent decades, marked by geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation and a slowdown in international trade, Portugal emerges as a case of resilience that deserves attention. According to the OECD's latest assessment, the country managed to maintain a solid growth pace in 2024 and 2025, underpinned by a rare combination of macroeconomic stability, financial robustness, and labor market dynamism.
The Portuguese Gross Domestic Product grew by 2.1% in 2024, a performance above the Eurozone average, and the forecast for 2025 remains positive, despite the expected slowdown in the international context. This growth was accompanied by a historically low unemployment rate of close to 6.4%, reflecting an economy that continues to generate employment even in an adverse external environment.
At the same time, Portugal has been strengthening its financial credibility. Public debt continues on a downward path, supported by more balanced fiscal balances and a significant improvement in the country's external position. In 2024, Portugal recorded a record external surplus, demonstrating a more competitive economy and less dependent on external financing than in the past.
This performance is not the result of chance. It is the result of a combination of structural and cyclical factors: strong tourist demand, consistent recovery of private consumption, accelerated execution of European funds and a business sector that has been able to adapt to successive shocks, from the pandemic to geopolitical upheavals.
However, reading the OECD report is clear in stressing that this favorable phase should not generate complacency. The Portuguese economy remains exposed to relevant risks. The slowdown in the main European economies, in particular Germany, the persistence of global trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty are real threats to a growth model that is heavily dependent on the outside world.
More importantly, the OECD itself warns that the current positive trajectory will only be sustainable if Portugal manages to transform cyclical growth into structural growth. This implies investing more effectively in productivity, innovation, workforce qualifications, and institutional capacity to execute public policies.
Portugal thus enters 2026 with an enviable economic position in the European context, but also with an increased responsibility. The resilience shown in recent years has created a historic opportunity. How the country chooses to use it will determine whether this cycle will be just another recovery... or the beginning of a real change in economic level.
 
NEWS, Economy