Portugal is not escaping the crisis: it is facing it with talent, innovation and resilience

There is a worrying trend that repeats itself every time the world trembles: many countries go into defense mode, retreat, wait for the storm to pass. But there is one fact that begins to distinguish Portugal. According to the most recent study by the Office of Planning, Strategy, Evaluation and International Relations (GPEARI) of the Ministry of Finance, the Portuguese economy shows a capacity for resilience that defies expectations and belies the usual narrative of vulnerability. When everyone puts their heads in the sand, Portugal raises its head and proves that talent and innovation are the best weapons against uncertainty.
The study analysed the impact of economic shocks on Portugal´s three major trading partners: the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom. The conclusion is surprising. Although the United States is the world´s largest economy and the fourth largest customer of Portuguese exports, its influence on national performance is minimal. An increase of one million euros in US GDP translates into only 65 additional euros in Portuguese exports. An equivalent increase in German GDP would have an impact of 2,300 euros and British GDP of 980 euros. At first glance, these figures could be interpreted as a sign of fragility. But what the study reveals is exactly the opposite: Portuguese exports to the United States adjust more quickly to any economic turbulence.
While sales to Germany take an average of three quarters to return to normal after a shock, and exports to the UK take even longer, the US market is back in balance in just two quarters. This means that Portugal´s trade relations with the United States are more agile, sophisticated and adaptable. This speed of response is not due to the size of trade, but to the nature of Portuguese exports: products with higher added value, technologically advanced and with a less volatile demand profile.
Instead of relying excessively on a small group of traditional goods, Portugal has diversified its offer, focusing on areas such as engineering, biotechnology, medical equipment, information technology and specialized services. This structural transformation has been gradual but consistent. The Bank of Portugal confirms this trend in its October economic bulletin, where it points out that, between 2015 and 2024, more than 60% of the gain in market share of Portuguese exports in the European Union resulted from goods and services intensive in technology and knowledge.
Over the last decade, Portuguese exports have grown by 81.6% in the European Union, surpassing imports by more than 20 percentage points. This performance has translated into a real increase in competitiveness. In other words, Portugal is not selling more just because the European market has grown, but because its products have gained relevance and quality. Pharmaceutical products, electronic components, software solutions and telecommunications services are today an essential part of national exports. This repositioning is the direct result of national talent and investment in innovation, research and development.
Contrary to popular belief, resilience is not just a matter of luck or a favorable situation. It is a collective construction that combines strategic vision, consistent public policies and the ability of companies to adapt. The Portuguese economy has learned from previous crises, and today it shows a pattern of response that distinguishes it from other European countries. When there is an external disturbance, the impact is real, but the return to normality is rapid. This agility explains why, even in an unstable global environment, the country continues to grow, export and attract foreign investment.
Another important factor is the profile of Portuguese talent. The new generations are highly qualified, with solid technical and scientific training, and increasingly oriented towards value-added sectors. The combination of knowledge and creativity makes Portugal a fertile ground for innovation. It is no coincidence that several technology multinationals are setting up development centers in the country, nor that national startups are gaining space in demanding international markets.
The GPEARI study shows that the economic shock in the United States has an immediate impact on exports of food, beverages, tobacco, and rubber and plastic products, but that the remaining exports depend mainly on long-term structural trends. This finding reinforces the idea that Portugal is less exposed to cyclical fluctuations and more anchored in sustainable trade relations.
While other European countries are still struggling to recover from recent economic shocks, Portugal seems to have found a formula for stability based on diversification and the ability to innovate. It is not that the country is immune to global crises, but it knows how to respond to them with intelligence and flexibility. That´s the essence of true resilience.
Portugal does not need to deny the challenges it faces. It needs to continue to do what it has done best: invest in talent, invest in innovation and trust in its ability to compete globally. When everyone hides waiting for the storm to pass, Portugal raises its head, faces the wind and moves on. This is how a modern economy is built, confident and capable of transforming adversity into opportunity.