Portugal enters 2026 with a more solid, predictable and attractive economy

Portugal enters 2026 with a more solid, predictable and attractive economy
The Portuguese economy surprised again in the third quarter of 2025. Not because of a punctual growth, but because of the consistency of the set of indicators. In a European context still marked by uncertainty, Portugal managed to position itself above the European Union average, confirming that it is going through a structurally healthier phase.
Gross Domestic Product grew by 2.4%, mainly driven by private consumption and investment. Consumption remained strong, supported by a historically low unemployment rate and subdued inflation, which fell to 2.2%. This balance between employment, real wages and price stability has created an environment of confidence rare in the current European landscape, allowing households to regain purchasing power and businesses to plan more predictably.
Investment, in turn, is benefiting from two key drivers. On the one hand, the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan, which continues to inject capital into the real economy, especially in infrastructure, digitalisation, energy and housing. On the other hand, a more favourable financial context, with interest rates on a downward trajectory, which once again unlocked investment decisions that had been suspended since 2022.
Also in the external sector, the evolution was positive. Exports grew 1.2% in the quarter, reversing the contraction of the previous period. The behaviour of services, namely tourism, technology and business services, was decisive for this recovery. At the same time, imports decelerated to 3.7%, reflecting greater normalization of supply chains and less need to anticipate purchases for fear of logistical disruptions.
But perhaps the most relevant sign of this new phase of the Portuguese economy comes from public finances. The country maintained strict fiscal control, supported by growth in tax revenue and discipline in spending. As a result, the public debt ratio continued to decline steadily, strengthening the country's external credibility.
This effort was recognized by the markets. Standard & Poor's raised the Portuguese debt rating to A+, while Fitch raised it to A. At the same time, the debt spread against Germany reached historic lows, translating into lower financing costs for the State, companies and households.
This set of factors creates an extremely relevant basis for the economic cycle that begins in 2026. Growth above the European average, controlled inflation, accelerating investment, solid public accounts and confidence in international markets are ingredients that do not arise by chance. They are the result of a decade of adjustment, reforms, institutional stability and full integration into the European economy.
The most important thing is that this is not a fragile or circumstantial recovery. It is a structurally more mature trajectory. Portugal today has a more balanced, more predictable and more attractive economic profile for long-term investment.
At a time when many European countries are facing slowdowns, political instability or fiscal weaknesses, Portugal emerges as a positive exception. And this has very concrete consequences: more investment, more qualified employment, more sustainable growth and greater capacity to face external shocks.
If 2025 confirmed the turnaround, 2026 could consolidate Portugal as one of the most stable and interesting economies in southern Europe.