The real change in Portugal is not in growth. It is in the resistance.

The real change in Portugal is not in growth. It is in the resistance.
When economic projections emerge, attention is usually focused on a single question: will we grow more or less?
It is a natural reaction. After all, economic growth remains one of the main indicators used to measure a country´s performance. But sometimes this obsession with numbers hides something more important. An economy is not measured only by the speed at which it grows. It is also measured by the way it resists, its ability to adapt and the preparation it shows in the face of the shocks that inevitably arise.
Reading the most recent Economic Bulletin of the Bank of Portugal, this was precisely the conclusion I took.
Projections point to growth of 1.8% in 2026, a slowdown to 1.6% in 2027 and a return to 1.8% in 2028. These are not extraordinary numbers. They will not generate headlines about economic miracles or fuel triumphalist speeches. But perhaps we are looking at the wrong question.
The relevant question is not why Portugal grows only 1.8%.
The relevant question is how Portugal manages to continue to grow in one of the most complex international contexts of recent decades.
The world around us is far from stable.
The war in the Middle East continues to generate uncertainty about energy markets. Global supply chains remain vulnerable. Inflation has not yet completely disappeared from developed economies. Trade tensions between major economic blocs remain. Europe continues to face demographic challenges and competitiveness problems.
Despite this, Portugal continues to show positive economic growth, relatively low unemployment, ongoing investment and a downward trajectory of public debt.
Just ten or fifteen years ago, a similar international scenario would have caused much more severe impacts on the Portuguese economy.
And this is probably the most important news that many are not appreciating.
Portugal has changed.
It changed gradually, without great announcements and without grandiose proclamations. But it has changed.
For decades, the Portuguese economy lived under the weight of structural vulnerabilities that limited its ability to respond to any international crisis. We relied heavily on imported energy. The level of indebtedness was high. Public finances were often pointed out as a risk factor. The confidence of the international markets fluctuated at the whim of each external turbulence.
Today the reality is different.
Portugal continues to face important challenges, but it arrives at this new phase of the global economy in a more solid position.
The Bank of Portugal itself highlights a particularly relevant aspect: the country has reduced its energy dependence and significantly increased the weight of renewable energies.
It may seem like a technicality.
It is not.
Energy has become one of the main strategic factors of the modern economy. Just look at what is happening with data centres, artificial intelligence, the technology industry or the reindustrialisation processes that several European countries are trying to develop.
Those who control competitive energy have a growing economic advantage.
And Portugal is today in a much more favorable position than many imagine.
At the same time, there is another indicator that deserves attention.
The public debt.
For years, Portugal has often been cited in international reports as one of the most vulnerable countries in Europe due to the burden of its debt.
Today, according to the Bank of Portugal´s projections, public debt is expected to fall to around 79.5% of GDP by 2028, below the Eurozone average.
This fact has an importance that goes far beyond public accounting.
It means greater credibility with investors.
It means less exposure to financial crises.
It means greater capacity to respond to future economic difficulties.
It means, above all, more freedom of decision.
Excessively indebted countries are constantly conditioned by financial markets. The most financially robust countries have greater room to define their own future.
Portugal is approaching that position.
But perhaps the most relevant transformation is another.
The Portuguese economy is slowly beginning to change the nature of its growth.
For many years we have depended excessively on conjunctural factors. Tourism. Consumption. Favorable cycles of the international economy. Reduced interest rates.
All of this continues to be important.
But the debate is finally beginning to shift to a word that for decades has been absent from the Portuguese economic conversation: productivity.
The Bank of Portugal says that productivity gains are expected to play an increasing role in the coming years, helping to offset the impact of an aging population and lower population growth.
This is a fundamental change.
Because countries don´t get rich just because they work harder.
They get rich because they produce more value.
And producing more value requires investment, technology, innovation, qualification and management capacity.
Interestingly, this is precisely where several global trends begin to favor Portugal.
We have universities that produce internationally recognized talent.
We have growing technology companies.
We have projects related to artificial intelligence.
We have relevant investments in data centers.
We have a geographical position that is increasingly valued for digital connectivity.
We have renewable energy.
We have quality of life capable of attracting international professionals.
None of this guarantees automatic success.
But it creates conditions that simply did not exist two decades ago.
Of course, there are still challenges.
Housing remains a serious concern.
Productivity remains below the average of the most developed countries.
Public administration needs greater efficiency.
Justice remains slow.
The country continues to lose part of the talent it trains.
Ignoring these issues would be a mistake.
But ignoring the progress made would also be.
Sometimes, Portugal seems to suffer from a curious phenomenon.
Have difficulty recognizing their own improvements.
Public debate often tends to focus only on what remains to be done.
And there is a lot to do.
But there is also a lot that has already been done.
When we only look at the problems, we run the risk of ignoring evolution.
And when we ignore evolution, we become unable to perceive the opportunities that arise.
The Bank of Portugal´s report does not describe a perfect economy.
Nor does it describe an accelerating economy.
Describes something potentially more important.
A more resilient economy.
An economy that has learned some lessons from past crises.
An economy less vulnerable to external shocks.
An economy that continues to grow even when the international context becomes more difficult.
In an increasingly unstable world, perhaps this is precisely the most valuable characteristic.
Because growing quickly during favorable periods is relatively easy.
Continuing to move forward when the world slows down is what distinguishes prepared countries from countries dependent on luck.
And maybe that´s the real change that´s happening in Portugal.
It´s not a speed change.
It is a change of resistance.