2026: when innovation is no longer a promise and becomes an economic engine

I recently read a summary published by Forbes about Capgemini's upcoming report, TechnoVision – Top 5 Tech Trends to Watch in 2026. The full document will only be released in January, and I confess that I am awaiting its publication with great interest, because the framework presented confirms, very clearly, what I have been observing on the ground with companies, investors and decision-makers: we are entering a phase in which technology definitively ceases to be experimental and becomes structural in the business model of organizations.
To put it in context, Capgemini is one of the largest technology and business consulting companies in the world, with a presence in more than 50 countries and more than 350 thousand employees. He works daily with governments, large business groups, and financial institutions to define their digital transformation, cloud, data, and artificial intelligence strategies. The TechnoVision program, which is published annually, is used by business leaders as a true strategic compass for investment decisions and technological innovation in the medium and long term.
The strongest point of the report is precisely this: Capgemini calls 2026 "the year of truth for Artificial Intelligence". After a period dominated by proofs of concept, pilots, and experimental projects, we are now entering the phase of serious, transversal execution with measurable economic impact. The challenge is no longer technological. The challenge is organizational, cultural, and strategic. It is about data, architecture, governance and, above all, how people and intelligent systems work together.
This is a critical moment for countries like Portugal. Because those who know how to integrate this transformation in a fast, consistent, and structured way gain a competitive advantage that can last for decades. And Portugal, due to its openness to innovation, the quality of its talent and the growing maturity of its technological ecosystem, starts from a much more favorable position than many imagine.
The second major change pointed out by Capgemini is perhaps the quietest, but also one of the most profound: the software itself is changing. Development is no longer centered on writing code and is now driven by intentions, goals, and results. AI takes over much of the technical execution, while human teams focus on oversight, quality, governance, and strategic alignment. This requires a deep reskilling of talent and a new way of thinking about engineering and technology management.
In parallel, the cloud enters a new phase. The so-called Cloud 3.0 is not just a technical evolution. It is a new architecture of economic power. Hybrid, private, multi-cloud, and sovereign cloud are no longer options and become basic conditions for those who want to operate AI at scale with performance, security, and sovereignty. This reality helps to explain the huge investment we are seeing in data centers and digital infrastructures, also in Portugal.
Another central trend is the rise of intelligent operations. Companies move from functioning as sets of siloed systems to operating as dynamic process engines, supported by AI agents that continuously execute, propose, learn, and adjust, while humans govern, supervise, and make strategic decisions. This radically changes the models of productivity, risk, and value creation.
Finally, the report emphasizes something that I consider to be absolutely decisive for the coming years: technological sovereignty no longer means isolation. It means controlled interdependence. In 2026 we will see an intense race to control the critical layers of the digital economy: data, cloud, chips, AI models, and technological ecosystems.
This summary does not describe the distant future. Describes the immediate present. And those who understand this early, as a country, as a company or as an investor, position themselves far ahead of the curve.